Fantasy football,
with the math shown.

Projections, trade values and live win probability — built on eleven seasons of play-by-play, and published alongside their own measured error rates.

Trade Finder

Scores every swap twice — your gain by our model, theirs by market consensus. Only mutual wins surface.

Live Win Probability

Beats ESPN 0.4147 to 0.4383 log loss on 9,802 plays. Every play shows what it did to the odds.

Accuracy Report

Our error rates, published in full — including the models we built, tested and threw away.

No account needed. Your league stays on Sleeper.

LVLV17
NENE45
Week 5 · FINAL
CHICHI7
GBGB31
Week 5 · FINAL
PHIPHI17
JAXJAX19
Week 5 · FINAL
BALBAL30
ATLATL23
Week 5 · FINAL
CLECLE12
NYJNYJ17
Week 5 · FINAL
BUFBUF37
LALA34
Week 5 · FINAL
SEASEA3-2
DENDEN3-2
Week 6 · Thu Oct 15 20:15
HOUHOU1-4
JAXJAX4-1
Week 6 · Sun Oct 18 09:30
CHICHI3-2
ATLATL2-3
Week 6 · Sun Oct 18 13:00
BALBAL4-1
CLECLE3-2
Week 6 · Sun Oct 18 13:00
TENTEN0-5
INDIND2-3
Week 6 · Sun Oct 18 13:00
NYJNYJ2-3
NENE3-2
Week 6 · Sun Oct 18 13:00
NONO1-4
NYGNYG3-1-1
Week 6 · Sun Oct 18 13:00
CARCAR2-2
PHIPHI2-3
Week 6 · Sun Oct 18 13:00
PITPIT3-2
TBTB1-4
Week 6 · Sun Oct 18 13:00
ARIARI1-4
LALA2-3
Week 6 · Sun Oct 18 16:05
LACLAC0-5
KCKC4-0
Week 6 · Sun Oct 18 16:25
BUFBUF4-1
LVLV3-2
Week 6 · Sun Oct 18 16:25
DALDAL2-3
GBGB3-2
Week 6 · Sun Oct 18 20:20
WASWAS1-3-1
SFSF5-0
Week 6 · Mon Oct 19 20:15
NENE3-2
CHICHI3-2
Week 7 · Thu Oct 22 20:15
PITPIT3-2
NONO1-4
Week 7 · Sun Oct 25 09:30
SFSF5-0
ATLATL2-3
Week 7 · Sun Oct 25 13:00
CINCIN3-2
BALBAL4-1
Week 7 · Sun Oct 25 13:00

Sync a League

Connect a league from Sleeper, ESPN or Yahoo. Stored in your browser only.

Power Rankings

Ranked by projected weekly points, with the volatility that comes with it. A high sigma means the team wins blowouts and loses games it should not.

#TeamProj ppwSigmaExp. wins
1abishekxrithika127.828.88.4
2Benjeett123.927.57.9
3Kitsu75123.127.47.6
4CL1715122.526.87.6
5Nabs33122.227.17.7
6aliuser121.427.07.6
7dihraoka115.525.86.5
8raaaaaaaaaaaa111.425.75.8
9BabyShukla109.325.25.7
10REEDIDDY67109.225.15.4

dmodel

Building this next.

Tiers

Players grouped where the projection actually breaks, not by round. A tier ends when the gap to the next player exceeds 2.2× the median gap at that position — so the last player in a tier is roughly as good as the first, and reaching for him costs you nothing.

QB — 11 tiers

TierPlayersppg
T1Josh Allen22.9–22.9
T2Jalen Hurts21.0–21.0
T3Lamar Jackson · Jayden Daniels19.8–20.0
T4Patrick Mahomes · Brock Purdy · Drake Maye · Trevor Lawrence18.5–19.0
T5Joe Burrow · Bo Nix · Kyler Murray · Justin Herbert · Dak Prescott · Daniel Jones · Caleb Williams · Baker Mayfield · Matthew Stafford · Jared Goff · Tyler Shough16.6–18.1
T6Malik Willis16.2–16.2
T7C.J. Stroud · Jordan Love · Jacoby Brissett · Deshaun Watson · Bryce Young · Aaron Rodgers · Sam Darnold · Geno Smith · Michael Penix Jr.14.4–15.7
T8Fernando Mendoza · Cam Ward13.8–13.9
T9Jameis Winston12.5–12.5
T10Anthony Richardson · Justin Fields4.8–5.2
T11J.J. McCarthy · Marcus Mariota · Sam Howell · Shedeur Sanders · Tyrod Taylor · Tommy DeVito · Carson Wentz · Tyler Huntley · Tua Tagovailoa · Spencer Rattler · Drew Lock · Joe Flacco · Ty Simpson · Tyson Bagent3.6–4.3

RB — 8 tiers

TierPlayersppg
T1Christian McCaffrey · Jahmyr Gibbs · Bijan Robinson16.8–17.2
T2De'Von Achane15.0–15.0
T3Jeremiyah Love · Jonathan Taylor14.5–14.5
T4Cam Skattebo · Omarion Hampton · Kyren Williams13.8–14.1
T5Saquon Barkley · Bucky Irving13.0–13.3
T6James Cook · Ashton Jeanty · Josh Jacobs · Chase Brown · Breece Hall · Derrick Henry · Quinshon Judkins · Kenneth Walker III · Alvin Kamara · James Conner · Javonte Williams · D'Andre Swift · J.K. Dobbins · Travis Etienne · David Montgomery · TreVeyon Henderson · Jadarian Price · Tony Pollard · RJ Harvey · Rhamondre Stevenson · Aaron Jones · Jaylen Warren · Chuba Hubbard · Rico Dowdle · Rachaad White · Tyrone Tracy Jr.9.3–12.5
T7Woody Marks · Zach Charbonnet · Tyjae Spears · Isiah Pacheco · Kyle Monangai8.4–8.9
T8Bam Knight · Jacory Croskey-Merritt · Kenny Gainwell · Kaelon Black · Kimani Vidal · Brian Robinson7.7–8.1

WR — 6 tiers

TierPlayersppg
T1Puka Nacua17.9–17.9
T2Ja'Marr Chase · CeeDee Lamb · Malik Nabers · Amon-Ra St. Brown · Jaxon Smith-Njigba15.6–16.2
T3Justin Jefferson · Drake London · Rashee Rice · Nico Collins · George Pickens13.6–14.2
T4Chris Olave13.2–13.2
T5A.J. Brown · Tetairoa McMillan · Brian Thomas Jr. · Garrett Wilson · Zay Flowers · Tee Higgins · Davante Adams · Jordan Addison · Ladd McConkey11.9–12.8
T6Marvin Harrison Jr. · DeVonta Smith · Wan'Dale Robinson · Jameson Williams · Emeka Egbuka · Rome Odunze · DK Metcalf · Jakobi Meyers · Xavier Worthy · Chris Godwin Jr. · Mike Evans · DJ Moore · Courtland Sutton · Jayden Reed · Terry McLaurin · Jaylen Waddle · Michael Pittman · Carnell Tate · Romeo Doubs · Quentin Johnston · Michael Wilson · Jordyn Tyson · Christian Watson · Deebo Samuel · Josh Downs · Khalil Shakir · Calvin Ridley9.7–11.5

TE — 5 tiers

TierPlayersppg
T1Brock Bowers · Trey McBride13.1–13.5
T2Tyler Warren · Sam LaPorta11.2–11.4
T3Harold Fannin Jr. · Travis Kelce · Colston Loveland9.9–10.2
T4Oronde Gadsden II · Jake Ferguson · Kyle Pitts · David Njoku · Dallas Goedert · Hunter Henry · Kenyon Sadiq · T.J. Hockenson · Dalton Kincaid · George Kittle · Dalton Schultz · Cade Otton · Juwan Johnson · Mark Andrews · Evan Engram · Theo Johnson · Mason Taylor · Brenton Strange · Jake Tonges · AJ Barner7.3–9.2
T5Pat Freiermuth · Chig Okonkwo · Tyler Higbee · Mike Gesicki · Isaiah Likely · Gunnar Helm · Cole Kmet · Tucker Kraft · Colby Parkinson · Greg Dulcich · Tyler Conklin · Ja'Tavion Sanders · Noah Fant · Terrance Ferguson · Michael Mayer · Nate Boerkircher · Marlin Klein · Max Klare · Eli Stowers · Dawson Knox · Darnell Washington5.6–7.0

K — 4 tiers

TierPlayersppg
T1Ka'imi Fairbairn · Brandon Aubrey9.9–10.0
T2Jason Myers · Cameron Dicker8.8–8.9
T3Jake Bates · Harrison Butker · Cam Little · Tyler Loop · Cairo Santos · Evan McPherson7.4–8.3
T4Eddy Pineiro6.8–6.8

DST — 1 tiers

TierPlayersppg
T1Seahawks Defense · Texans Defense · Broncos Defense · Browns Defense · Patriots Defense · Steelers Defense · Jaguars Defense · Saints Defense · Vikings Defense · Falcons Defense · Rams Defense · Eagles Defense · Chargers Defense · Lions Defense · Panthers Defense · Buccaneers Defense · Bears Defense · Bills Defense · Ravens Defense · Colts Defense · Chiefs Defense · Dolphins Defense · Raiders Defense · Bengals Defense · Packers Defense · Titans Defense · Commanders Defense · Giants Defense · 49ers Defense · Cardinals Defense · Cowboys Defense · Jets Defense6.0–8.2

Boom / Bust

Every projection here is a distribution, not a point. p10 is a bad week, p50 typical, p90 a ceiling game. Wide bars are tournament players; narrow bars are the ones you start when you just need to not lose.

QB

PlayerFloor → ceilingp10p50p90
Josh Allen8.522.637.3ceiling
Jalen Hurts7.820.834.1ceiling
Lamar Jackson7.419.832.5ceiling
Jayden Daniels7.319.532.1ceiling
Patrick Mahomes7.018.830.9ceiling
Brock Purdy6.918.630.6ceiling
Drake Maye6.918.530.4ceiling
Trevor Lawrence6.918.430.2floor
Joe Burrow6.717.929.5floor
Bo Nix6.717.929.5floor
Kyler Murray6.717.829.3floor
Justin Herbert6.617.628.9floor
Dak Prescott6.517.428.5floor
Daniel Jones6.417.228.3floor

RB

PlayerFloor → ceilingp10p50p90
Christian McCaffrey2.914.435.0ceiling
Jahmyr Gibbs2.914.334.7ceiling
Bijan Robinson2.914.134.2ceiling
De'Von Achane2.612.630.6ceiling
Jeremiyah Love2.512.229.6ceiling
Jonathan Taylor2.512.229.5ceiling
Cam Skattebo2.411.828.7ceiling
Omarion Hampton2.411.628.2floor
Kyren Williams2.411.628.1floor
Saquon Barkley2.311.227.1floor
Bucky Irving2.210.926.5floor
James Cook2.110.525.5floor
Ashton Jeanty2.110.525.4floor
Josh Jacobs2.110.224.8floor

WR

PlayerFloor → ceilingp10p50p90
Puka Nacua2.814.936.4ceiling
Ja'Marr Chase2.513.533.0ceiling
CeeDee Lamb2.513.432.8ceiling
Malik Nabers2.513.332.5ceiling
Amon-Ra St. Brown2.513.132.0ceiling
Jaxon Smith-Njigba2.413.031.8ceiling
Justin Jefferson2.211.929.0ceiling
Drake London2.211.728.6floor
Rashee Rice2.211.628.3floor
Nico Collins2.111.528.1floor
George Pickens2.111.427.8floor
Chris Olave2.111.127.0floor
A.J. Brown2.010.726.2floor
Tetairoa McMillan2.010.625.9floor

TE

PlayerFloor → ceilingp10p50p90
Brock Bowers2.410.928.1ceiling
Trey McBride2.410.727.4ceiling
Tyler Warren2.09.223.7ceiling
Sam LaPorta2.09.123.3ceiling
Harold Fannin Jr.1.88.321.3ceiling
Travis Kelce1.88.221.0ceiling
Colston Loveland1.88.020.6ceiling
Oronde Gadsden II1.67.519.3floor
Jake Ferguson1.67.418.9floor
Kyle Pitts1.67.218.6floor
David Njoku1.67.018.1floor
Dallas Goedert1.67.018.1floor
Hunter Henry1.56.917.7floor
Kenyon Sadiq1.56.917.7floor

K

PlayerFloor → ceilingp10p50p90
Ka'imi Fairbairn1.68.420.5ceiling
Brandon Aubrey1.68.320.2ceiling
Jason Myers1.47.518.2ceiling
Cameron Dicker1.47.317.9ceiling
Jake Bates1.36.916.9ceiling
Harrison Butker1.36.816.5floor
Cam Little1.26.515.9floor
Tyler Loop1.26.415.6floor
Cairo Santos1.26.315.5floor
Evan McPherson1.16.215.0floor
Eddy Pineiro1.15.713.9floor

DST

PlayerFloor → ceilingp10p50p90
Seahawks Defense1.36.916.8ceiling
Texans Defense1.36.816.6ceiling
Broncos Defense1.26.616.0ceiling
Browns Defense1.26.415.6ceiling
Patriots Defense1.26.315.4ceiling
Steelers Defense1.26.315.4ceiling
Jaguars Defense1.26.315.4ceiling
Saints Defense1.26.215.3floor
Vikings Defense1.26.215.1floor
Falcons Defense1.26.215.1floor
Rams Defense1.16.115.0floor
Eagles Defense1.16.014.8floor
Chargers Defense1.16.014.6floor
Lions Defense1.16.014.6floor

rsos

Building this next.

Trade Finder

Every swap is scored twice: your gain by our projections, their gain by market consensus. Only trades where both are positive appear — the ones you win and they still accept. Gains are starting-lineup points per week, capped at three per team.

TeamYou giveYou getYou gainThey gain
CL1715Jacoby BrissettJosh Allen + Chris Godwin+6.53+0.56
CL1715Jacoby BrissettJosh Allen + Romeo Doubs+5.77+0.56
Kitsu75Jacoby BrissettJalen Hurts + Jordan Addison+5.68+4.31
aliuserJacoby BrissettJeremiyah Love + Marvin Harrison+5.60+1.57
CL1715Jacoby BrissettJosh Allen+5.57+0.56
Kitsu75Jacoby BrissettJalen Hurts + Travis Kelce+5.53+2.62
abishekxrithikaGeorge PickensLamar Jackson + Malik Nabers+4.97+1.18
dihraokaJacoby Brissett + Tee HigginsChristian McCaffrey+4.93+0.71
aliuserJacoby BrissettJeremiyah Love+4.60+1.57
aliuserJacoby BrissettJared Goff + Jeremiyah Love+4.60+1.57
Kitsu75Jacoby BrissettJalen Hurts + Mike Evans+4.57+2.13
dihraokaJacoby Brissett + Bhayshul TutenRashee Rice+3.97+0.72
raaaaaaaaaaaaJacoby Brissett + Bhayshul TutenKyren Williams+3.86+0.47
abishekxrithikaJacoby BrissettLamar Jackson + Jakobi Meyers+3.85+0.70
abishekxrithikaGeorge PickensMalik Nabers + Jakobi Meyers+3.54+1.18
dihraokaJaxon Smith-NjigbaJason Myers+3.24+0.67
raaaaaaaaaaaaJacoby BrissettPatrick Mahomes + Jameson Williams+3.17+1.28
raaaaaaaaaaaaJacoby BrissettPatrick Mahomes + Alvin Kamara+2.78+2.79
REEDIDDY67Jacoby Brissett + George PickensJa'Marr Chase+2.57+0.85
Nabs33Jacoby BrissettBrock Purdy + J.K. Dobbins+2.29+2.16
Nabs33Jacoby BrissettDrake Maye + J.K. Dobbins+2.21+2.16
Nabs33Jaxon Smith-NjigbaBrock Purdy + CeeDee Lamb+1.96+0.99
REEDIDDY67Jacoby BrissettDak Prescott + DK Metcalf+1.51+2.82
REEDIDDY67Jacoby BrissettJavonte Williams + Xavier Worthy+1.42+0.50

Lineup Optimizer

Reads your connected league's actual roster slots — superflex, TE premium, two-flex, whatever you play — and fills the best legal lineup from your roster.

Accuracy Report

Measured performance of the models behind this site, published in full including where they lose. Win probability is scored against ESPN on the same 9,802 plays from 60 completed games. Lower log loss is better.

Win probability vs ESPN

ModelLog lossBrier
Shukie (market + interaction)0.41470.1358
ESPN0.43830.1428
Drive Monte Carlo (rejected)0.43260.1407

The edge over ESPN is +0.0236 with a 95% confidence interval of −0.0051 to +0.0530 (game-level bootstrap, 60 games). That interval crosses zero, so this is not statistically significant. Probability we are genuinely better: 0.943. The Monte Carlo simulator was built, scored, and rejected — the optimal blend weight came out at exactly zero.

By quarter

QuarterPlaysShukieESPNEdge
Q121410.56560.5831+3.0%
Q227720.45220.4744+4.7%
Q321960.36970.3977+7.0%
Q426930.29260.3191+8.3%

Calibration error (ECE) is 0.0536 for us against 0.0607 for ESPN. We are better calibrated in Q2, Q3 and Q4; ESPN is better in Q1.

Model selection, walk-forward by season

VariantLog lossBrierWorst decile gap
State only (no line)0.48360.16350.020
Market0.45080.14960.022
Market + interaction0.4488——

Every choice was made on walk-forward validation across 5 held-out seasons, never in-sample. A gradient boosting model was tested and lost to the logistic (0.4988 vs 0.4950), so the simpler model shipped. At kickoff the site uses a pure line model, which has the best pregame calibration gap of the three (0.031 vs 0.060 and 0.071).

What the models are built on

SourceSize
Play-by-play, 2015–2025443,261 plays / 3,018 games
Drive outcomes66,529 drives
Play-level state pool444,814 plays
Overtime, first possession tied0.602 (CI 0.518–0.685)

Overtime uses an empirical table rather than a model, because 133 games is too few to fit one. The confidence interval is wide and shown here for that reason.

rpts

Building this next.

Welcome to King Fantasy

A persistence-tested fantasy football engine. Every weight in it was measured against year-over-year data, not chosen — signals that did not repeat were dropped and labelled. Live scoreboard, league news, standings and post-game box lines below; projections, rankings and your roster in the tabs above.

Top Story

Bills' Josh Allen Addresses Knee Injury Rumors After Recording 4 Rushing Yards vs. Patriots

Josh Allen — Athletic, BleacherR, ESPN, ESPNwire, PFT, Rotowire, SportingN, Yahoo (8 outlets)

Team Box Lines

TeamPlaysYdsPassRush1stTO
DEN57224123106171
LAC63237121155143
ARI7132729956201
DET65412271163230
HOU6332926179200
TEN5818717057152
IND6933226766190
PIT54352235127160
LV5730629138161
NE66536374165291
MIN68364229153182
NO43142965593
NYG84408326103292
WAS61380199202200
JAX68408331102181
PHI5923222022130
SEA6025119589145
SF5727118994142
DAL5636631650203
TB65419189241240

Around the NFL

2026 Standings

AFC East
TeamWLPFPA
BUFBUF41164141
NENE3211094
NYJNYJ239396
MIAMIA0570132
AFC North
TeamWLPFPA
BALBAL41146119
CINCIN32128109
PITPIT32111109
CLECLE3293112
AFC South
TeamWLPFPA
JAXJAX4112370
INDIND23124138
HOUHOU14110112
TENTEN0558109
AFC West
TeamWLPFPA
KCKC4011877
LVLV32132129
DENDEN3297111
LACLAC0584129
NFC East
TeamWLPFPA
NYGNYG31109106
DALDAL23138136
PHIPHI2392112
WASWAS13115149
NFC North
TeamWLPFPA
MINMIN5010964
DETDET32164148
CHICHI3211996
GBGB32104112
NFC South
TeamWLPFPA
CARCAR22121109
ATLATL23119122
NONO14118151
TBTB14100112
NFC West
TeamWLPFPA
SFSF5015493
SEASEA32134105
LALA23119120
ARIARI14108162

Records count completed 2026 regular-season games only, so every team reads 0-0 until Week 1 finishes. Built 2026-10-13 05:09Z.